Risk Score for Predicting Microalbuminuria in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes - คะแนนความเสี่ยงสำหรับทำนายภาวะไมโครอัลบูมินในปัสสาวะในผู้ป่วยเบาหวานชนิดที่ 2

Abstract

            The purpose of this study was to develop and validate the risk score for predicting microalbuminuria in patients with type 2 diabetes. The secondary data of the project on an assessment on quality of care among patients diagnosed with type 2 diabetes and hypertension visiting Ministry of Public Health and Bangkok Metropolitan Administration hospitals in Thailand were used in this study. The risk score was calculated from the coefficients of the variables in the final model which was analyzed by stepwise logistic regression. The result showed that the risk score based on fasting blood sugar, HbA1c, triglycerides, and systolic blood pressure had possible scores range from 0 to 5, and the cut point was at the score of 2. The area under receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve on development data set was 0.61 (95%CI=0.58 – 0.64), the sensitivity was 74.01% (95%CI=71.53% – 76.50%), and the specificity was 44.34% (95%CI=41.53% – 47.15%). The area under ROC curve on validation data set was 0.58 (95%CI=0.56– 0.61), the sensitivity was 74.41% (95%CI=72.32% – 76.51%), and the specificity was 37.15% (95%CI=34.83% – 39.47%). As a result, patients with type 2 diabetes who had the risk score greater than or equal to 2 were considered to be a high risk group of microalbuminuria. These patients should receive screening test to make a further detection of microalbuminuria.

Key words: type 2 diabetes, microalbuminuria, risk score, prediction