Prediction of the Number of the Cases of Dengue Haemohargic Fever in Eastern Region of Thailand, 2013-2017

Abstract

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is an endemic disease in Thailand. Forecasting of the DHF situation and trends will be useful for early warning and preparedness of the prevention and control. The objective of this study was to forecast the DHF situation for 2013-2017 in the Eastern Region of Thailand. It was conducted by gathering DHF surveillance data from 2003 - 2012 and applying time series analysis to predict quantitatively using the triple exponential smoothing. With the existing data and the forecasting technique, estimated numbers of DHF cases were obtained for the region as well as the forecasting trends for individual provinces. The epidemic would be fluctuated every other year with the increasing trends; and the patterns might vary from province to province. These predicted data should be useful for the regional authorities to prepare for the response to DHF in the next few years. Most importantly, the prediciton would be very useful for estimating financial cost as well as preparation on health capacity building and raising public awareness to cope with the increasing trends of DHF in the region.