Prediction of the Number of the Cases of Dengue Haemohargic Fever in Eastern Region of Thailand, 2013-2017 - พยากรณ์จำนวนผู้ป่วยโรคไข้เลือดออก เขตภาคตะวันออกของประเทศไทย ปี 2550-2556

Abstract

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is an endemic disease in Thailand. Forecasting of the DHF
situation and trends will be useful for early warning and preparedness of the prevention and control. The
objective of this study was to forecast the DHF situation for 2013-2017 in the Eastern Region of
Thailand. It was conducted by gathering DHF surveillance data from 2003 - 2012 and applying time
series analysis to predict quantitatively using the triple exponential smoothing. With the existing data
and the forecasting technique, estimated numbers of DHF cases were obtained for the region as well as
the forecasting trends for individual provinces. The epidemic would be fluctuated every other year with
the increasing trends; and the patterns might vary from province to province. These predicted data
should be useful for the regional authorities to prepare for the response to DHF in the next few years.
Most importantly, the prediciton would be very useful for estimating financial cost as well as preparation
on health capacity building and raising public awareness to cope with the increasing trends of DHF
in the region.
Key words: Dengue hemorrhagic fever, disease situation, forecasting, epidemiological surveillance