Risk Factors for Dengue Fever in Thailand Using Mathematical Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE)

Abstract

The objective of this research is to investigate risk factors for Dengue fever in Thailand. The mathematical generalized estimating equation (GEE) whose dependent variables have Poisson distributions and negative binomial distributions are studied. The secondary province-level data consisting of the number of Dengue fever patients, rainfall, average temperature, forest area, household income are collected. The regions and seasons are also considered. The research finds that the GEE whose dependent variables have negative binomial distributions are more appropriate, hence it is used for the data analysis. The central region and the season during February-April are assigned to be reference groups. At the significance of 0.05, the risk factors for Dengue fever are rainfall (Relative Risk (RR) 1.0009), average temperature (RR 1.1736), forest area (RR 1.0482), southern region (RR 2.7390), eastern region (RR 2.0489), western region (RR 1.4051), the season during May-July (RR 3.0526) and August-October (RR 3.2677).