Risk Factors of Mortality in Nakhon Ratchasima 2010 Centennial Flooding

บทคัดย่อ

        Thailand has usually faced flooding disaster and the situation is regarded the most dangerous showing worse tendency. During a centennial cycle, October 10 - November 5, 2010, the great flooding occurred in Nakhon Ratchasima, resulting in 239 persons severely injured and 36 deaths from drowning. This study examined the potential risk factors of drowning mortality so that it would be a guideline to assign the risk reduction measures/behavior related to such mortality in the future. This was a case control study. The flood event and deceased persons were reported to the Flood Monitoring System, Nakhon Ratchasima, Public Health Office by the verbal autopsy to identify the cause of mortality and risk behaviors by victims’ relatives or friends who were on the scene when the victims passed away. Of all deceased victims, 31 were detected and 105 underwent verbal autopsy. Odds ratio was conducted using the odds ratio at 95% confidence interval. The results showed that mortality rate by affected household were 44.97 percent per 100,000 households. All deceased persons were male and mean age was 41 years (4-85 years), 46 percent died of drowning at chestdeep flood and 58.06 percent died of the influx of flash flood into the village. Of them, 72.22 percent (13 out of 18 persons) died during the first two days of flooding event. Risk factors of drowning mortality included ingress and egress of the village while flooding (OR 12.89, 95% CI 3.89,42.67) alcohol intake while flooding (OR 6.24, 95% CI 1.52,25.63) hey and swimming skill (OR 7.44, 95%CI 2.19,25.31). Despites being skillful in swimming some fatally succumbed to the raging torrent. In summary, so massive flooding resulted in a large number of deaths while they were ill prepared and careless. Regarding the preventive measures in Nakhon Ratchasima province in the future, a warning system should be provided in the hight risky areas; people should be well prepared with foods and drinking water for at least 2-3 day survival, and avoid entering into the risky areas. The safety equipments should be in stock, for example, life vests, and professional teamwork assistance with life-saving equipments.

Key words: risk factors, cause of mortality, Nakhon Ratchasima, 2010 flood